Multimodal Spatiotemporal Deep Fusion for Highway Traffic Accident Prediction in Toronto: A Case Study and Roadmap
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A proactive traffic safety approach provides a forward-looking method for managing traffic and preventing accidents by identifying high-risk conditions before they occur. Previous studies have often focused on historical crash data or demographic factors, relying on limited single-source inputs and neglecting spatial, temporal, and environmental interactions. This study develops a multimodal spatiotemporal deep fusion framework for predicting traffic accidents in Toronto, Canada, by integrating spatial, temporal, environmental, and lighting features within a proactive modeling structure. Three fusion approaches were investigated: (1) environmental feature fusion, (2) extended fusion incorporating lighting and road surface conditions, and (3) a double-stage fusion combining all feature types. The double-stage fusion achieved the best performance, reducing RMSE from 0.50 to 0.41 and outperforming conventional models across multiple error metrics. The framework supports fine-grained hotspot analysis, improves proactive traffic safety management, and provides a transferable roadmap for applying deep fusion in real-world intelligent transportation and urban planning systems.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".