North American Housing Market Returns Linkages: A Multi-Horizon Outlook
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This article investigates the relationships among residential home prices using monthly indexes that reflect the average value of a typical home in North America. The dataset consists of monthly price returns representing the fifteen largest U.S. states and the ten Canadian provinces from 2000 to 2023. A new method is employed that allows for multiple correlations (pairs, triads, and tetrads) among several home price indexes for different regions (U.S. states or Canadian provinces) to differ by calendar date (from 2000 to 2023) and lengths of time (from 2 to 64 months). A prior analysis examines the directional spillovers from on region to another within each country. A supplementary economic analysis shows how variables like income, unemployment, and housing inventory affect home price fluctuations. The results demonstrate that the spatial correlation across regional housing markets is prone to horizon effects. They show that the American states are more exposed to regional spillovers and also more sensitive to the unemployment variable than Canadian provinces.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".