Quantifying the limited explanatory power of traditional classified geological maps
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Since William Smith published his ‘Delineation of the Strata of England and Wales with part of Scotland’ in 1815, it has been the accepted practice to map geology as a collection of discrete polygons (or volumes in 3D), each representing a parcel of rock that is sufficiently self-similar in terms of its geological properties to class as a ‘unit’. However, the properties that are used to define these units, such as age, composition and texture, are themselves continuous variables more suited to modelling by regression than by classification. As such, the discrete nature of the traditional classified geological map has limited power to explain real observed values of geological properties, which vary on continuous scales, resulting in a disconnect between our geological maps and reality. In this study, we quantify the explanatory power of a traditional geological map – the British Geological Survey's 1 : 625K bedrock geology of the UK – in relation to observations of major element chemical composition, and compare this with the explanatory power provided by a Bayesian deep learning regression-based approach to ‘properties-first’ geological mapping. We find that, for our selection of elements, the traditional geological map explains between 57 and 66% of their variance, and the Bayesian deep learning approach explains between 66 and 75% of their variance, almost 10% higher explained variance than the traditional classified geological map, which equates to progress of between a fifth and quarter of the way towards achieving the ‘ultimate’ perfectly informative geological map. We discuss the implications of the traditional classified geological map's limited explanatory power and how the inherent constraint of its discrete classified representation should reasonably lead us to pursue geological mapping techniques that are free of this limitation, i.e. which are based on regression rather than classification.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it