When Fairness Isn't Statistical: The Limits of Machine Learning in Evaluating Legal Reasoning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Legal decisions are increasingly evaluated for fairness, consistency, and bias using machine learning (ML) techniques. In high-stakes domains like refugee adjudication, such methods are often applied to detect disparities in outcomes. Yet it remains unclear whether statistical methods can meaningfully assess fairness in legal contexts shaped by discretion, normative complexity, and limited ground truth. In this paper, we empirically evaluate three common ML approaches (feature-based analysis, semantic clustering, and predictive modeling) on a large, real-world dataset of 59,000+ Canadian refugee decisions (AsyLex). Our experiments show that these methods produce divergent and sometimes contradictory signals, that predictive modeling often depends on contextual and procedural features rather than legal features, and that semantic clustering fails to capture substantive legal reasoning. We show limitations of statistical fairness evaluation, challenge the assumption that statistical regularity equates to fairness, and argue that current computational approaches fall short of evaluating fairness in legally discretionary domains. We argue that evaluating fairness in law requires methods grounded not only in data, but in legal reasoning and institutional context.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.156 | 0.489 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.022 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.010 | 0.015 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.008 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".