Estimating Aggregate Capacity of Connected DERs and Forecasting Feeder Power Flow With Limited Data Availability
Bibliographic record
Abstract
By 2050, zero-carbon electric power systems will rely heavily on innumerable distributed energy resources (DERs), such as wind and solar. Accurate estimation of the aggregate connected DER capacity becomes pivotal in such a landscape. However, forecasting, power flow analysis, and optimization of feeders for operational decision-making by individually modeling each of these numerous renewables in the absence of complete information are operationally challenging and technically impractical. In response, we introduce a method to accurately estimate the aggregate capacities of the connected DERs on distribution feeders and a near-term forecasting method. Our proposal comprises: 1) ovel deep learning-based architecture with a few convolutional neural network and long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM) modules to represent feeder connected aggregate models of DERs and loads and associated training algorithms; 2) method for estimating aggregate capacities of connected renewables and loads; and 3) method for short-term (hourly) high-resolution forecasting. This step of estimation of the aggregate capacities of connected DERs, is a sequel to solving feeder hosting capacity problem. The method is tested using a North American utility feeder data, achieving an average accuracy of 95.56% for forecasting aggregate load power, 93.70% for feeder flow predictions, and 97.53% for estimating the aggregate capacity of DERs.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".