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Episodic northward transport along Nares Strait brings anomalously warm water into the Arctic Ocean.

2025· preprint· W4416087608 on OpenAlexaff
Yarisbel Garcia‐Quintana, Paul G. Myers, G. W. K. Moore

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Language
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
TopicArctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
Canadian institutionsUniversity of AlbertaUniversity of Toronto
Fundersnot available
KeywordsArcticThe arcticArctic ice packArctic dipole anomalySea ice

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Nares Strait is one of the primary Arctic export pathways for sea ice and freshwater, connecting the Arctic Ocean to the subpolar North Atlantic. The southward transport along the Strait, primarily driven by the higher sea level in the Arctic compared to Baffin Bay, has occasionally been observed to reverse. Using a regional, high-resolution coupled sea ice-ocean model, extensively evaluated with observations, we identified multiple wind driven reversal events, from 2002 to 2020. Locally wind-driven reversals occur between September and October, under low sea ice concentration and strong, persistent southwesterly winds. They last up to 15 days. Stronger and longer reversals, which occur in December, last up to 25 days and are driven by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that directly influence the ocean circulation south of the Strait. During both types of events, pulses of heat between 2-5 TW enter the Arctic Ocean. Model data show that reversal events coincide with elevated sea surface height along the Greenland coast, altering current structure along Nares Strait and enhancing heat transport. This anomalous northward heat transfer could potentially impact the formation and stability of Nares Strait ice bridges and accelerate the retreat of marine-terminating glaciers that drain into the Strait. Events in 2010 and 2017 led to a ~33% increase in modelled heat transport into Petermann Glacier fjord (relative to the 2002-2020 mean), one of the largest glaciers in the Northern Hemisphere. Future reversals could have a greater impact considering the increasing ocean warming observed and simulated within Kane Basin.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.120
Threshold uncertainty score0.238

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.009
GPT teacher head0.204
Teacher spread0.195 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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