Bibliographic record
Abstract
Fertility rates in the developed world started to decline sharply at the end of the 19th century. In Europe fertility declined by about 40 per cent between 1870 and 1930, and the majority of Western countries experienced this transition before the Second World War (Lee, 2003). The Second World War was followed by a period of increases in fertility. After peaking during the ‘baby boom’ years of the late 1950s, the average total fertility rate in developed countries fell from an average of 2.8 births per woman in 1960 to 2.0 in 1975 and then to 1.6 in the late 1990s (and below 1.3 in southern Europe). The total fertility rate (TFR) estimates the number of children a woman would bear if she went through her childbearing years exposed to the current age-specific birth rates for women between the ages of 15–44 years. Table 1 presents the evolution of the total fertility rate since 1965 to 2004 in the most developed economies. In 1965, fertility rates were almost three children in many of these countries and even higher in Canada, Portugal, Iceland and Ireland. During the next decade, rates fell sharply in the richest countries, but they remained above replacement level in southern Europe, Ireland and Iceland.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.022 | 0.008 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".