Long-Term Forecasting of Multivariate Urban Data via Decomposition and Spatio-Temporal Graph Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Long-term forecasting of multivariate urban data poses a significant challenge due to the complex spatiotemporal dependencies inherent in such datasets. This paper presents DST, a novel multivariate time-series forecasting model that integrates graph attention and temporal convolution within a Graph Neural Network (GNN) to effectively capture spatial and temporal dependencies, respectively. To enhance model performance, we apply a decomposition-based preprocessing step that isolates trend, seasonal, and residual components of the time series, enabling the learning of distinct graph structures for different time-series components. Extensive experiments on real-world urban datasets—including electricity demand, weather metrics, carbon intensity, and air pollution—demonstrate the effectiveness of DST across a range of forecast horizons, from several days to one month. Specifically, our approach achieves an average improvement of 2.89% to 9.10% in long-term forecasting accuracy over state-of-the-art time-series forecasting models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".