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Empirical Expectations and Coordination Games

2025· article· W4416184193 on OpenAlexaff
Nathan Lloyd, Peter R. Lewis

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typearticle
Language
FieldPsychology
TopicAction Observation and Synchronization
Canadian institutionsOntario Tech University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMirroringSociotechnical systemCore (optical fiber)Control (management)Through-the-lens meteringFoundation (evidence)Coordination gameEmpirical researchEmpirical evidence

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Coordination is a central challenge in self-organizing multi-agent and sociotechnical systems, especially as control shifts from centralized to decentralized forms, demanding that components remain adaptive. This paper introduces a novel and explicit approach to social intelligence centered on agents' ability to form and act on expectations about others' behavior. This capability is grounded in interpretable mechanisms that allow agents to adjust strategies based on observed behavior, empirical expectations, and reference networks, mirroring core aspects of human social reasoning. We evaluate this framework across four canonical coordination games. By modeling symbolically, we provide a diagnostic lens for understanding and engineering coordination without reliance on black-box learning techniques. Our results highlight the potential of explicit, symbolic, expectation-based reasoning as a foundation for robust, decentralized coordination.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.008
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.055
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.008
Threshold uncertainty score0.040

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0080.055
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.006
Scholarly communication0.0030.005
Open science0.0010.002
Research integrity0.0010.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.042
GPT teacher head0.392
Teacher spread0.350 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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