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Empirical Expectations and Coordination Games

2025· article· W4416184193 on OpenAlexaff
Nathan Lloyd, Peter R. Lewis

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typearticle
Language
FieldPsychology
TopicAction Observation and Synchronization
Canadian institutionsOntario Tech University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMirroringSociotechnical systemCore (optical fiber)Control (management)Through-the-lens meteringFoundation (evidence)Coordination gameEmpirical researchEmpirical evidence

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Coordination is a central challenge in self-organizing multi-agent and sociotechnical systems, especially as control shifts from centralized to decentralized forms, demanding that components remain adaptive. This paper introduces a novel and explicit approach to social intelligence centered on agents' ability to form and act on expectations about others' behavior. This capability is grounded in interpretable mechanisms that allow agents to adjust strategies based on observed behavior, empirical expectations, and reference networks, mirroring core aspects of human social reasoning. We evaluate this framework across four canonical coordination games. By modeling symbolically, we provide a diagnostic lens for understanding and engineering coordination without reliance on black-box learning techniques. Our results highlight the potential of explicit, symbolic, expectation-based reasoning as a foundation for robust, decentralized coordination.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.747
Threshold uncertainty score0.994

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0070.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.042
GPT teacher head0.392
Teacher spread0.350 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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