EMAformer: Enhancing Transformer through Embedding Armor for Time Series Forecasting
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Multivariate time series forecasting is crucial across a wide range of domains. While presenting notable progress for the Transformer architecture, iTransformer still lags behind the latest MLP-based models. We attribute this performance gap to unstable inter-channel relationships. To bridge this gap, we propose EMAformer, a simple yet effective model that enhances the Transformer with an auxiliary embedding suite, akin to armor that reinforces its ability. By introducing three key inductive biases, i.e., \textit{global stability}, \textit{phase sensitivity}, and \textit{cross-axis specificity}, EMAformer unlocks the further potential of the Transformer architecture, achieving state-of-the-art performance on 12 real-world benchmarks and reducing forecasting errors by an average of 2.73\% in MSE and 5.15\% in MAE. This significantly advances the practical applicability of Transformer-based approaches for multivariate time series forecasting. The code is available on https://github.com/PlanckChang/EMAformer.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".