Quantifying CO emissions from boreal wildfires by assimilating TROPOMI and TCCON observations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We perform a global inverse modelling analysis to quantify biomass burning emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) from the extreme wildfires in Canada between May and September 2023. Using the GEOS-Chem model, we assimilated observations at 3 d temporal and 2° × 2.5° horizontal resolution from the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) separately and then jointly with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) measurements. We also evaluated prior emissions from the Quick Fire Emissions Dataset (QFED), Blended Global Biomass Burning Emissions Product eXtended (GBBEPx), Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS), and Canadian Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (CFFEPS). The assimilation of TROPOMI-only measurements estimated posterior North America emissions for QFED, GBBEPx, GFAS, and CFFEPS of 110.4 ± 20, 112.8 ± 20, 127.2 ± 17, and 125.6 ± 18 Tg CO compared to prior estimates of 37.1, 42.7, 91.0, and 90.2 Tg CO, respectively. The joint assimilation of TROPOMI+TCCON reduced the posterior 1 σ uncertainty on the North American emission estimates by up to about 30 %, while showing only a modest impact ( < 5 %) on the mean estimate of the inferred emissions. An evaluation against independent measurements reveals that adding TCCON data increases the correlations and slightly lowers the biases and standard deviations. Additionally, including an experimental TCCON product at East Trout Lake with higher surface sensitivity, we find better agreement of the assimilation results with nearby in situ tall tower and aircraft measurements. This highlights the potential importance of vertical sensitivity in these experimental data for constraining local surface emissions. Our results demonstrate the complementarity of the greater temporal coverage provided by TCCON with the spatial coverage of TROPOMI when these data are jointly assimilated.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".