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Record W4416240224 · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2511.10630

Cutoff for generalised Bernoulli-Laplace urn models

2025· preprint· W4416240224 on OpenAlexfundno aff
Ritesh Goenka, Jonathan Hermon, Dominik Schmid

Bibliographic record

VenueArXiv.org · 2025
Typepreprint
Language
FieldMathematics
TopicMarkov Chains and Monte Carlo Methods
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
KeywordsCutoffShufflingMarkov chainBall (mathematics)Mixing (physics)Permutation (music)Markov processDistribution (mathematics)

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

We introduce a multi-colour multi-urn generalisation of the Bernoulli-Laplace urn model, consisting of $d$ urns, $m$ colours, and $dmn$ balls, with $dn$ balls of each colour and $mn$ balls in each urn. At each step, one ball is drawn uniformly at random from each urn, and the chosen balls are redistributed among the urns based on a permutation drawn from a distribution $μ$ on the symmetric group $S_d$. We study the mixing time of this Markov chain for fixed $m$, $d$, and $μ$, as $n \rightarrow \infty$. We show that there is cutoff whenever the chain on $[d]$ corresponding to the evolution of a single ball is irreducible, and that the same holds for a labeled version of the model. As an application, we also obtain partial results on cutoff for a card shuffling version of the model in which the cards are labeled and their ordering within each stack matters.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.004
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Research integrity
Consensus categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.528
Threshold uncertainty score0.999

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0040.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0020.002
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0030.002
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0020.002
Research integrity0.0020.002
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.232
GPT teacher head0.394
Teacher spread0.162 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.

Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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