Macroeconomic shocks and business cycle dynamics: a comparative analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We contribute to the literature on business cycles by undertaking a comprehensive comparative assessment of the relative importance of supply, demand, and monetary policy shocks in driving macroeconomic fluctuations in the USA, Canada, Japan, the UK, and the euro area. Using structural Bayesian VAR models with sign, magnitude, and zero restrictions, we identify supply, demand, and monetary policy disturbances. We conduct both country-specific and cross-country comparisons, focusing on the post-1990s period when most countries adopted inflation targeting. We find that supply and demand shocks dominate monetary policy shocks in explaining output and inflation dynamics. While output fluctuations are primarily driven by either supply or demand shocks, depending on the country, inflation variation consistently stemmed from demand shocks, with monetary policy shocks typically contributing less than 10 per cent. The findings shed light on the recent drivers of output and inflation across major economies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".