Liberals' Recurrent Victory in the Canadian Elections: The Trump Factor and the Mark Carney Factor
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Parliamentary elections were held in Canada on April 28 this year. They were won for the fourth time in a row by the ruling Liberal Party, which formed a minority government. Its main rival, the Conservatives, had been rapidly losing their seemingly insurmountable advantage of 25 percentage points since January 2025, fell into a slight deficit, and, despite all efforts, were not able to overcome this gap by the election date. The Liberals' unexpected comeback was driven by four conditions: the D. Trump factor, the resignation of the unpopular J. Trudeau, the victory of M. Carney in the Liberal Party leadership election, and the inability of P. Poilievre to refocus the Conservative Party’s campaign in response to the changed circumstances.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.023 | 0.008 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".