Transformation of the confessional structure of the population of Northwest Russia and the Baltics (late 19th — first quarter of the 21st centuries)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The secularization processes that have unfolded since the early 20th century have profoundly transformed the traditional religious structure of populations in many countries and regions. This study aims to trace the shifts in the confessional composition of the population in Northwest Russia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania from the late 19th century to the present. The analysis is based on data from the 1897 and 2021 population censuses, as well as sociological surveys that included questions on religious affiliation. Drawing on the dynamics of confessional change, the study identifies 24 historical-confessional districts across Northwest Russia and the Baltics States. A typology of these districts is developed according to two principal criteria: the degree of complexity in the confessional structure and the changing proportions of the region’s four major religious groups — Protestants, Catholics, Eastern Christians, and Jews. The first type of district is characterized by a homogenization of the religious population in favour of Orthodox and Catholic groups, accompanied by a general heterogenization of the broader confessional structure, including the non-religious population. This type encompasses all districts of Northwest Russia, Ida-Virumaa County in Estonia, Latgale in Latvia, and parts of Lithuania. The second type, most extensively represented in Estonia and Latvia, exhibits heterogenization in both the overall confessional structure and its religious component. The third type is marked by the homogenization of the general confessional structure, with a predominance of Catholics in Lithuania, and of Protestants and the non-religious population in southwestern Estonia.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".