Bayesian Deep Learning for Remaining Useful Life Estimation via Stein Variational Gradient Descent
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A crucial task in predictive maintenance is estimating the remaining useful life of physical systems. In the last decade, deep learning has improved considerably upon traditional model-based and statistical approaches in terms of predictive performance. However, in order to optimally plan maintenance operations, it is also important to quantify the uncertainty inherent in the predictions. This issue can be addressed by turning standard frequentist neural networks into Bayesian neural networks, which are naturally capable of providing confidence intervals around the estimates. Several methods exist for training those models. Researchers have focused mostly on parametric variational inference and sampling-based techniques, which notoriously suffer from limited approximation power and large computational burden, respectively. In this work, we use Stein variational gradient descent, a recently proposed algorithm for approximating intractable distributions that overcomes the drawbacks of the aforementioned techniques. In particular, we show through experimental studies on both simulated run-to-failure turbofan engine degradation data and real industrial battery degradation data that Bayesian deep learning models trained via Stein variational gradient descent consistently outperform with respect to convergence speed and predictive performance both the same models trained via parametric variational inference and their frequentist counterparts trained via backpropagation. Furthermore, we propose a method to enhance performance based on the uncertainty information provided by the Bayesian models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".