Error Analysis of Geomagnetic Field Reconstruction Model Using Negative Learning for Seismic Anomaly Detection
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Detecting geomagnetic anomalies preceding earthquakes is a challenging yet promising area of research that has gained increasing attention in recent years. This study introduces a novel reconstruction-based modeling approach enhanced by negative learning, employing a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) network explicitly trained to accurately reconstruct non-seismic geomagnetic signals while intentionally amplifying reconstruction errors for seismic signals. By penalizing the model for accurately reconstructing seismic anomalies, the negative learning approach effectively magnifies the differences between normal and anomalous data. This strategic differentiation enhances the sensitivity of the BiLSTM network, enabling improved detection of subtle geomagnetic anomalies that may serve as earthquake precursors. Experimental validation clearly demonstrated statistically significant higher reconstruction errors for seismic signals compared to non-seismic signals, confirmed through the Mann-Whitney U test with a p-value of 0.0035 for Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). These results provide compelling evidence of the enhanced anomaly detection capability achieved through negative learning. Unlike traditional classification-based methods, negative learning explicitly encourages sensitivity to subtle precursor signals embedded within complex geomagnetic data, establishing a robust basis for further development of reliable earthquake prediction methods.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".