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Record W4416465290 · doi:10.1175/waf-d-25-0102.1

Multiscale Analysis of a Flash Freeze Event

2025· article· W4416465290 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.
aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.

Bibliographic record

VenueWeather and Forecasting · 2025
Typearticle
Language
FieldEarth and Planetary Sciences
TopicMeteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Canadian institutionsMcGill University
FundersFonds de recherche du Québec – Nature et technologiesNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of CanadaEnvironment and Climate Change Canada
KeywordsCold frontMesoscale meteorologyClassification of discontinuitiesAtmospheric instabilityLidarAdvectionFlash floodWarm frontMicroscale chemistry

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract A high-impact flash freeze event is analyzed from synoptic-scale, mesoscale, and microscale perspectives. The 28–29 February 2024 cold front produced rapidly decreasing temperatures of 12°C over 3 h and gusty winds that primarily impacted regions from the Great Lakes eastward to Quebec and portions of northern New England. A dynamical distinction between synoptic-scale and mesoscale features in the Great Lakes and Saint Lawrence River Valley region is examined. This event presents a remarkable example of an idealized cold frontal profile through upper-air data, whereby a shallow depth of 40 hPa was associated with a 15°C temperature difference. This near-surface frontal inversion is coincident with first-order temperature discontinuities at the surface. A Doppler lidar wind profiler is used to measure the time evolution of the wind field as the cold front passes over Montreal. Horizontal wind speed gusts neared 35 m s −1 with an average gust factor of 1.83 found throughout the event. Analysis of turbulence properties and intensity shows the strong winds that can often be associated with flash freeze events. Lidar measurements are also combined and compared with local upper-air data to investigate evolving atmospheric static stability during the event. Significance Statement Flash freeze events are often associated with hazardous conditions. Yet, relatively few case studies exist to provide a thorough analysis of the associated weather dynamics. This study is the first of its kind to present a multiscale analysis of a remarkable flash freeze event. The case to be addressed is that of 28–29 February 2024 in southeastern Canada and portions of New York and New England. This event demonstrates that it is the concurrence of multiple processes—a rapid 12°C temperature drop in Montreal within 3 h, a transition from above to below freezing during precipitation, and extreme winds of 35 m s −1 —that defines this flash freeze as distinct from an ordinary cold frontal passage. These results can inform a follow-up study that would seek to quantitatively define a flash freeze, providing important insight to operational forecasting.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.450
Threshold uncertainty score0.998

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.032
GPT teacher head0.253
Teacher spread0.221 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it