COVEN: Providing a Variety of Threshold-Based Forecasts for the Outer Radiation Belt
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We present a suite of VAMPIRE (Van Allen belt Multi‐day Predictions by Implementing a Random Forest for Electrons) models capable of predicting if the outer radiation belt crosses set percentile thresholds. We use Random Forest classification models to predict if the daily ∼2 MeV electron flux level across the outer radiation belt exceeds thresholds from the 60th to the 95th percentiles. Most models show a balanced accuracy of >0.7 (>70%) at nowcasting and ∼0.6 (60%) at forecasting up to 6 days in advance, a longer forecast than current operational models. Using feature importance (mean decrease in impurity), we determine the key inputs that are important in driving increasing flux levels and over what timescales they have an impact. Crucially, we find that only the average AL index from various days beforehand is required to be able to forecast radiation belt fluxes with good skill, meaning that models such as these could be operationally viable for space weather stakeholders. We call this suite a Collection Of VAMPIRE models for Enhanced Notification.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it