Capping oil emissions and the mass politics of Canadian sectoral climate policy
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Decarbonization requires transformational change in the oil and gas industry and a steep decline in production. This creates a broad cleavage in climate policy between groups tied to the fossil fuel industry and those that are vulnerable to climate impacts. We argue that as climate policy advances, it can fracture these groups to create divisions within them. We theorize this process using a cap on greenhouse gas emissions from the Canadian oil and gas industry. In a pre-registered survey, we find that the group that supported expanded oil production fractures when a sectoral emissions cap affects producers differently based on their carbon-intensity of production. Specifically, high carbon-intensity producers who previously supported expanded oil production begin to oppose new oil production when lower carbon-intensity oil curtails their own. Our findings have implications for understanding how climate policy affects public attitudes, distributional politics, and regionalism in the energy transition.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it