Decline and northward shift in Arctic cod distribution associated with the changing climate around Greenland
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Arctic cod ( Boreogadus saida Lepechin, 1774) is a key species in Arctic marine ecosystems, acting as a dominant mid-trophic link that transfers up to 75% of energy to higher trophic levels. It is therefore central to cultural identity, ecosystem function, food security, and socioeconomic systems in the circumpolar Arctic. High-latitude regions are under rapid warming. This includes Greenland—an instructive high-latitude case, where climate change is expected to have “ high to very high” impact on Arctic cod. This study combines trawl survey data and local and indigenous knowledge to map Arctic cod distribution around Greenland. Findings reveal a substantial decline in both West and East Greenland since the early 90s, alongside a northward shift in distribution. This happened surprisingly fast, during unfavorable habitat changes for early life stages, including rising sea-surface temperatures, declining sea-ice cover, and borealization of the prey field. Simultaneous northern shift in ringed seal catches—a predator highly dependent on Arctic cod—adds to the suggestion that effects cascade all the way through the ecosystem from physics to human hunting activities. The study suggests that existing bottom trawl surveys, originally designed for larger fish, offer cost-effective monitoring of Arctic cod that serve as a feasible early indicator of fundamental changes in Arctic marine ecosystems.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".