Migratory connectivity and barrier‐crossing flights of <i>Vermivora</i> warblers are associated with synoptic weather conditions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Migratory birds often navigate inhospitable barriers (e.g. oceans, deserts) during migration. Barrier crossings are frequently associated with increased rates of mortality and likely impose selective pressures on migratory species that shape their behaviour and distribution. Therefore, understanding how weather conditions influence the behaviour of migratory birds at a major barrier can provide insight into the adaptive evolution of long-distance migrations involving barrier crossings and how changing climatic conditions might affect migratory species in the future. We used light-level geolocator data from 89 individual Vermivora warblers to identify the weather conditions associated with individuals initiating barrier-crossing flights across the Gulf of Mexico (i.e. 'trans-Gulf flights') during both autumn and spring migrations from 2013 to 2017. Weather conditions associated with the initiation trans-Gulf flights differed between autumn and spring. In autumn, the initiation of trans-Gulf flights was positively associated with favourable wind conditions and temperature but negatively associated with relative humidity and 24-h change in barometric pressure. During spring migration, the initiation of trans-Gulf flights was negatively associated with surface-level relative humidity and barometric pressure but not associated with wind conditions. We found that the frequency of days with weather conditions associated with a high-predicted probability of Vermivora warblers initiating trans-Gulf flights varied geographically (range 0%-58% of days). Distinct breeding populations of golden-winged warblers (V. chrysoptera) with strong migratory connectivity between breeding and non-breeding regions exhibited weak migratory connectivity and overlapped extensively during migration immediately prior to initiating trans-Gulf flights. Breeding populations of blue-winged warblers (V. cyanoptera) exhibited weak migratory connectivity and co-occurred during both autumn and spring migrations and during the non-breeding period. The weak migratory connectivity that we observed in Vermivora warblers prior to crossing the Gulf of Mexico may be shaped by shared evolutionary responses to consistent synoptic weather conditions in the region. Predicted future climate conditions including increased humidity and more frequent and/or severe storms may decrease the favourability of conditions associated with initiating trans-Gulf flights during spring migration for Vermivora warblers, which could negatively affect populations.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".