Hysteresis response of Northern Hemisphere winter temperature variability under different CO₂ removal pathways
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Arctic amplification weakens the meridional temperature gradient (∂T/∂y), reducing the Northern Hemisphere winter daily temperature variability (Tstd). However, the extent to which Tstd recovers following CO₂ removal remains uncertain. We investigate the hysteresis and reversibility of Tstd under various CO₂ pathways using UKESM1-0-LL. The mid-latitude Tstd reduced during the ramp-up phase partially recovers following CO₂ removal, but its magnitude depends on the region and peak CO₂ concentration. In the low-concentration experiments, Tstd nearly returns to pre-industrial levels, whereas the high-concentration experiments show hysteresis and irreversibility in eastern Canada and northwestern Eurasia. These regional differences are primarily driven by changes in local temperature gradients. Specifically, the dominant factor for eastern Canada is the meridional temperature gradient, whereas for northwestern Eurasia, it is the zonal temperature gradient related to the land-sea thermal contrast. These results suggest that the response of Tstd to CO 2 removal differs depending on the region and the peak concentration.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".