Opportunities and challenges for Canada’s mariculture under climate change: a regional and sectoral outlook
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Mariculture is an important component of the seafood industry in Canada, but climate change presents both risks and opportunities. Using the Global Mariculture Production Model (GOMAP), an integrated framework that projects production potential under combined biophysical and socio-economic constraints, we assessed future changes in mariculture production, farm-gate prices, and employment for 13 key species across Canada’s Atlantic and Pacific coasts. Scenarios included two climate pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and three production approaches. Results show substantial regional contracts with important implications for spatial planning and adaptation policy. The Atlantic region shows modest gains under SSP1-2.6 but steep declines under SSP5-8.5 due to climate stress and habitat loss. In contrast, Pacific Canada, particularly central and northern areas, shows strong growth potential under SSP5-8.5, driven by climate-resilient species like Coho salmon and steelhead trout. However, these gains depend on policy, infrastructure, and spatial planning that reconcile mariculture expansion with conservation, Indigenous uses, and other priorities. Rising farm-gate prices may benefit producers but threaten affordability while employment outcomes diverge, with consistent job losses in Atlantic Canada but potential gains in the Pacific. Our findings highlight the need for region-specific adaptation strategies and investment in sustainable and resilient farming systems.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".