Does participation follow the same logic across different types of elections?
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Do political and institutional factors influence voter turnout in the same way in national and European Parliament (EP) elections? We hypothesise that these factors exert broadly similar but asymmetrical effects, due to differing baseline turnout levels. For the purposes of this study, we conducted time-series cross-sectional analyses of an original dataset covering 508 national lower house and EP elections held in European Union member states between 1975 and 2024. Our independent variables include election frequency, based on data from 2,487 major elections and referendums held in these countries. The results support our hypotheses. Political and institutional factors exert similar effects in both election types, but their magnitude varies as hypothesised. Factors that increase participation show stronger effects in EP elections, while those that reduce turnout are more pronounced in national contests. As a secondary finding, we show that these factors account neither for the long-term turnout gap between EP and national elections nor for its recent decline.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it