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Employee Promotion Prediction: Machine Learning in HR Management

2025· article· W4416955803 on OpenAlexaff
Wenqi Lu

Bibliographic record

VenueAdvances in Economics Management and Political Sciences · 2025
Typearticle
Language
FieldBusiness, Management and Accounting
TopicAI and HR Technologies
Canadian institutionsYork University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsGradient boostingPromotion (chess)Random forestBoosting (machine learning)Logistic regressionOversamplingRecall

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Employee promotion plays a crucial rule in human resource management, yet former promotion systems often suffer from inefficiency, inconsistency and bias. This study aims to develop a prediction system based on machine learning, using a Kaggle HR dataset of 54,808 employees. This study integrates logistic regression, random forest, XGBoost and gradient boosting models. To address class imbalance where only 8.5% of employees were promoted, this article uses oversampling techniques to enhance model performance. The result shows that Logistic Regression achieved the best baseline recall of 0.7112, while Random Forest with oversampling reached a recall of 0.9466. Key predictive features include training scores, previous-year ratings and departmental affiliations. The system implies how comprehensive and balanced feature integration can improve fairness and accuracy in promotion decisions. For companies like JMD company, the framework is universal because it is data-driven and transparent. A replicable model for industries seeking digital improvement in employee promotion systems has been created.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.003
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.005
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.005
Threshold uncertainty score0.016

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0030.005
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.012
GPT teacher head0.255
Teacher spread0.242 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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