Modelling near-surface ice content and midwinter melt events in mineral soils
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Over winter freeze–thaw events are notoriously difficult to represent in hydrologic models and have serious implications for the hydrologic function of intermittently freezing regions. Changing climate is leading to more frequent mid-winter thaw events. Midwinter thaw events are often the cause of flooding due to the combined impacts of snowmelt, precipitation, and limited soil infiltrability. A numerically efficient, semi-analytical coupled thermal and mass transport model is presented that represents the ice content of near-surface soil, and reports the depth of freezing/thawing. The model tracks pore ice formation and mean soil temperature in terms of enthalpy. It is tested against data collected in Southern Saskatchewan and is shown to capably reproduce field observations of frozen, thawed or transitioning soils. This numerically efficient model can be incorporated into regional hydrologic models where it is expected to improve predictions of soil ice content, leading to improved estimates of over-winter streamflow and flood potential.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it