Trade Attitudes and Federalism: A Study of Provincial Public Opinion toward Canada–US Trade
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Despite federal leadership on international trade policy, growing sub-federal involvement raises important questions about regional variation in public attitudes. This article explores whether Canadians’ trade preferences vary across provinces and are shaped by subnational contexts. Using 2022 Environics survey data and socioeconomic indicators from Statistics Canada, it tests competing post-functionalist and rationalist explanations. The results show a largely uniform support for free trade with the United States across provinces, with only Quebec showing a marginally more favorable baseline. Economic and ideological variables shape preferences in statistically significant ways but do not operate differently across regions. The findings support the rationalist framework, highlighting the role of income, education, and local trade exposure. However, the article finds little evidence of regional politicization of trade, suggesting that observed provincial trade involvement may reflect structural economic interests or institutional autonomy rather than public contestation, although recent US–Canada trade tensions may change this dynamic.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.007 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".