Quantitative and Predictive Folding Models from Limited Single-Molecule Data Using Simulation-Based Inference
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The study of biomolecular folding has been greatly advanced by single-molecule force spectroscopy (SMFS), which enables the observation of the dynamics of individual molecules. However, extracting quantitative models of fundamental properties such as folding landscapes from SMFS data is very challenging due to instrumental noise, linker artifacts, and the inherent stochasticity of the process, often requiring extensive datasets and complex calibration. Here, we introduce a framework based on simulation-based inference (SBI) that overcomes these limitations by integrating physics-based modeling with deep learning. We first apply this framework to analyze constant-force measurements of a DNA hairpin. From a single experimental trajectory of only two seconds, we successfully reconstruct the hairpin's free energy landscape and folding dynamics, obtaining results in close agreement with established deconvolution methods that require 10-100 times more data. Furthermore, we demonstrate the generality of our approach by applying it to a riboswitch aptamer featuring multiple states and tertiary contacts, resolving the profile of a landscape featuring four metastable states from a single trajectory. The Bayesian nature of this approach robustly quantifies uncertainties for all inferred parameters, including diffusion coefficients and linker stiffness, without needing independent measurements of instrument properties. The inferred models are predictive, generating simulated trajectories that quantitatively reproduce experimental thermodynamics and kinetics. The ability to derive statistically robust models from minimal datasets is crucial for investigating complex biomolecular systems where extensive data collection is impractical, paving the way for novel applications of SMFS.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".