Childhood immune imprinting shapes cohort and period influenza mortality
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Influenza viruses encountered in childhood can leave a lasting immunological imprint. To disentangle the mortality effects of age, the circulating seasonal strain, and immune history, we fit statistical mortality models to 54 years of influenza mortality data from the United States. We find strong signatures of subtype-level imprinting in H1N1-dominated seasons following the 2009 pandemic-cohorts imprinted with more similar H1N1 strains experience greater protection. Furthermore, we find large differences in age-specific mortality risk across cohorts based on their imprinted strain and the seasonal strains that were dominant throughout their lifetime. In contrast to older H1N1- and H2N2-imprinted cohorts, our results show that more recent cohorts imprinted with H3N2 have experienced substantially higher mortality through most of their lifetime. Our results highlight the long-term consequences of immune imprinting and its impact on period and cohort influenza mortality. Overall, our findings have important implications for vaccination efforts and future influenza mortality burden.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".