Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation associated with all-cause mortality in United States
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract A complex mix of factors explains the decline in adult all-cause mortality in the United States over the past century. Throughout the century, advances in social policies, infrastructure, and health care have all played an important contributing role in this decline. Yet the declining trend has oscillated over time, with different patterns also emerging by gender and race/ethnicity. Only limited research thus far has focused on the role of climate factors, especially with respect to large-scale Atlantic Oceanic variability through the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This paper presents an analysis of the association of AMO phases with all-cause mortality in the United States over the past century. The findings point to divergent impacts based on gender and race, with males and Black populations experiencing higher ( β Black = 1.21 versus β White = 0.39) all-cause mortality during negative phases of the AMO, indicative of cooler-than-normal North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. These findings suggest the importance and need for further research and analyses to explore the impact of climate patterns on health and mortality outcomes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".