Explainable Machine Learning Models for Predicting FEV1 in Non-Smoking Taiwanese Men Aged 45–55 Years
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Traditional regression explains only part of the variation in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1). Machine learning (ML) methods may capture nonlinear patterns beyond linear assumptions. Methods: We analyzed 23,943 non-smoking Taiwanese men aged 45–55 years from the MJ Health Screening Cohort. Random Forest (RF), Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB), and XGBoost were compared with multiple linear regression (MLR) using repeated train–test splits. Model performance was evaluated with RMSE, RAE, RRSE, and SMAPE. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) were used to interpret variable effects. Results: ML models achieved slightly lower prediction errors than MLR. The most influential predictors across models were lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), body weight (BW), education level, leukocyte count, total bilirubin, and sport area. SHAP indicated negative effects of LDH and leukocyte count and positive associations for BW, bilirubin, education, and physical activity. Conclusions: ML approaches provided modest accuracy gains and clearer interpretability compared with MLR. Biochemical and lifestyle factors—including LDH, BW, education, inflammation markers, and physical activity—contribute meaningfully to FEV1 among healthy middle-aged men.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".