What it takes to solve the Hubble tension through scale-dependent modifications of the primordial power spectrum
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We investigate scale-dependent modifications to the primordial scalar power spectrum as potential solutions to the Hubble tension. We use the Fisher-bias formalism, recently adapted to examine perturbed recombination solutions to the Hubble tension, and extend its range of validity with an iterative method. We first analyze the Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy data, demonstrating the existence of modifications to the primordial power spectrum capable of fully resolving the tension between Planck and SH0ES. As a proof of concept, we interpret these solutions in terms of small, time-dependent variations in the first slow roll parameter or in the sound speed of curvature perturbations during a stage of primordial inflation. However, these solutions are associated with a low total matter density $Ω_m$, which makes them inconsistent with baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and uncalibrated supernovae (SNIa) data. When incorporating additional BOSS and PantheonPlus data, the solutions that reduce the Hubble tension tend to overfit Planck CMB data to compensate for the worsened fit to BAO and SNIa data, making them less compelling. These findings suggest that modifying the primordial power spectrum alone is unlikely to provide a robust resolution to the tension and highlight how the viability of such data-driven solutions depends on the specific datasets considered, emphasizing the role of future high-precision observations in further constraining possible resolutions to the tension.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".