Data-Driven Spectrum Demand Prediction: A Spatio-Temporal Framework with Transfer Learning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Accurate spectrum demand prediction is crucial for informed spectrum allocation, effective regulatory planning, and fostering sustainable growth in modern wireless communication networks. It supports governmental efforts, particularly those led by the international telecommunication union (ITU), to establish fair spectrum allocation policies, improve auction mechanisms, and meet the requirements of emerging technologies such as advanced 5G, forthcoming 6G, and the internet of things (IoT). This paper presents an effective spatio-temporal prediction framework that leverages crowdsourced user-side key performance indicators (KPIs) and regulatory datasets to model and forecast spectrum demand. The proposed methodology achieves superior prediction accuracy and cross-regional generalizability by incorporating advanced feature engineering, comprehensive correlation analysis, and transfer learning techniques. Unlike traditional ITU models, which are often constrained by arbitrary inputs and unrealistic assumptions, this approach exploits granular, data-driven insights to account for spatial and temporal variations in spectrum utilization. Comparative evaluations against ITU estimates, as the benchmark, underscore our framework’s capability to deliver more realistic and actionable predictions. Experimental results validate the efficacy of our methodology, highlighting its potential as a robust approach for policymakers and regulatory bodies to enhance spectrum management and planning.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".