Tensor time series change-point detection in cryptocurrency network data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Financial fraud has been growing exponentially in recent years. The rise of cryptocurrencies as an investment asset has seen a parallel growth in cryptocurrency scams. To detect possible cryptocurrency fraud, in particular market manipulation, previous research focused on the detection of changes in the network of trades; however, market manipulators are now trading across multiple cryptocurrency platforms, making their detection more difficult. Hence, it is important to consider the identification of changes across a ‘network of networks’ over time. To this end, we propose a new change-point detection method, labeled TenSeg, in the network structure of tensor-variate data. TenSeg first employs a tensor decomposition, and second detects multiple change-points in the second-order (cross-covariance or network) structure of the decomposed data. It allows for change-point detection in the presence of frequent changes of possibly small magnitudes and is computationally fast. We apply our method to several simulated datasets and to a cryptocurrency dataset, which consists of network tensor-variate data from the Ethereum blockchain. TenSeg substantially outperforms state-of-the-art change-point techniques, and the detected change-points for Ethereum coincide with changes across several trading networks. All the relevant R code implementing the method in the article is available on https://github.com/Anastasiou–Andreas/TenSeg.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".