A Transport Hiatus in the North Atlantic Current in Early 2014 Led to the Coincident Trans-Atlantic Heat and Salt Anomaly Dipoles of 2015
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Speculation surrounds the possibility that increasing world temperatures could trigger a decrease in the heat supplied to the Subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) by the Gulf Stream (GS) and its extension, the North Atlantic Current (NAC). Here we provide evidence for just such a drop in heat and salt delivery in 2014, leading to the development of a cold fresh anomaly (CFA) in the SPNA and reciprocal warm salty anomaly (WSA) near North America in 2015. These coincident dipoles of heat and salt anomalies first appeared in February–March 2014 when cooling and freshening in the NAC near 45oN, 42oW was reciprocated by warming and increased salinity near 42oN, 50oW. The negative anomalies subsequently migrated north-eastwards along the path of the NAC to constitute the CFA centered on 50oN, 30oW by July 2015 while the reciprocal positive anomalies spread south-westwards to constitute the WSA centered on 40oN, 70oW. Sea surface temperature and height anomaly data revealed a rectangular three-fold structure for the CFA representing the path of the cooled and freshened NAC across the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Surface current velocity data for early 2014 showed that northwards transport in the NAC was temporarily reversed near its exit from the Mann Eddy, possibly due to an influx of Labrador Sea Water from the Deep Western Boundary Current. We conclude that the unprecedented cooling/freshening of the SPNA and warming/salinification of the North American coastal region in 2014–2015 were reciprocal consequences of an interruption of northwards mass transport in the NAC near its exit from the Mann Eddy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".