The Exodus That Never Was? An Empirical Analysis on Territorial Conflict and Foot-Voting
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This article explores the relationship between ethnic conflict, political polarization, and foot-voting behavior in the context of the 2017 Catalan independence referendum. By examining demographic trends and migration patterns in Catalonia during a period of political unrest (2015–2020), this research assesses whether the territorial tensions triggered significant demographic shifts, similar to the “Quebec exodus” of the 1970s. Utilizing multivariate analysis, we test the exit (migration) behavior, focusing on the role of political identity, polarization, and economic factors in shaping migration decisions. The results reveal a surprising stability in Catalan demographics, as no significant migration trends were observed despite the heightened political conflict. The analysis suggests that the lack of credibility of a secessionist threat, the stability of Catalan linguistic and cultural policies, and the lack of violent conflict contributed to the negligible demographic impact of the Catalan independence process.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".