How polar-midlatitude atmospheric teleconnections depend on regional sea ice fraction and global warming level
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. The climates of the polar and mid-latitude regions are linked through teleconnections. The regional details of these relationships, and how they may change with global warming, are however still uncertain. Using two large ensembles of coupled climate model simulations (CESM2, ACCESS-ESM1.5) and a composite analysis, we investigate the statistical relationships between sea ice variability and atmospheric circulation patterns, and how they evolve with sea ice retreat for both poles, including sensitivity to sea ice region in the Arctic. We find that relationships between sea ice amount and sea level pressure (SLP), the North Atlantic jet stream, and surface air temperature (SAT), depend on the region where sea ice varies. For instance, the North Atlantic jet resides further south when sea ice is low in the Labrador Sea, but is located further north and/or is weaker for low Okhotsk sea ice and is stronger and displaced northwards for low Chukchi-Bering sea ice. We also investigate the circulation patterns associated with changes in Antarctic sea ice. For the Arctic, circulation patterns tend to persist with global warming, until around 3 or 4 °C, when the ice edge has retreated substantially. In the Antarctic, patterns are sensitive to warming also at lower global warming levels for some seasons and variables, but are otherwise often persistent across warming levels. Lagged analysis suggests that the concurrent relationships mostly reflect the atmospheric conditions contributing to low sea ice, with weaker or altered patterns when sea ice leads. Our results emphasize the importance of regional heterogeneity, and on using large ensembles or other statistically rich datasets, for assessing the interlinkages between polar climate change and mid-latitude weather patterns, today and in a warmer climate. The overall persistence of teleconnection patterns between sea ice change and atmospheric circulation with global warming is encouraging, as it indicates that the main conclusions from current literature will be applicable also in a future, warmer world with less sea ice.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".