Cross-Country Evidence on the Causal Relationship between Policy Uncertainty and Housing Prices
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper, we examine the causal linkages between policy uncertainty and housing prices in a panel of seven advanced countries including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We implement a bootstrap panel causality test on quarterly data from 2001:Q1 to 2013:Q1, which allows us to circumvent the data limitation as observations are pooled across countries. The results provide evidence of a bi-directional causality between real housing prices and policy uncertainty, suggesting that high uncertainty related to future economic fundamentals and policies increases housing price volatility, which in turn may amplify financial and business cycles. The results also show bi-directional causality for France and Spain, but only unidirectional causality for the remaining countries. Specifically, unidirectional causality runs from policy uncertainty to real housing prices in Canada, Germany and Italy and from real housing prices to policy uncertainty in the U.K. and the U.S.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".