Bibliographic record
Abstract
Traditionally, the relationship between voting behaviour in federal elections and Land (regional) elections in Germany (as in most other countries) has been seen to possess a distinctly cyclical rhythm. According to this approach, the governing party at the federal level will poll particularly badly in Land elections at the middle of the federal legislative cycle. Using an analytical approach originally pioneered by the German political scientist Rainer Dinkel in 1977, we find strong evidence in Germany in support of this hypothesis for the period 1949-1990. However, the evidence becomes much less convincing for the period from 1990 onwards. These conclusions recieve further support when one uses the 'Index of Dissimilarity', an approach frequently invoked when analysing multi-level electoral dynamics in Canada. The territorial dimension of German politics has become significantly more important since German unification. Land election results are not as strongly linked to phenomena in the national electoral arenas and can, under certain conditions, be influenced by more local political events, personalities and processes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.016 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".