Estimating the Destination of Unlinked Trips in Transit Smart Card Fare Data
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Smart card automated fare collection systems have been effective for the collection of data about the travel behavior of users on public transit networks. Because some systems record only the boarding (origin) locations, a method is needed for estimating the alighting (destination) locations. Existing algorithms can estimate the destination for most trips. However, unlinked trips, which are not part of a trip chain during the day, are more difficult to analyze. The proposed improvement to the existing model for destination estimation, especially for unlinked trips, is based on kernel density estimation of the spatial and temporal probabilities of each destination. The Société de Transport de l'Outaouais, a medium-sized bus service near Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, provided data for a 1-month period in 2009 (908,303 total transactions). Existing algorithms can handle only 80.64% of the trips; the proposed method handles an additional 10.9%. These results are analyzed, and future research directions are discussed.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.027 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it