Survival Models for Step-Stress Experiments With Lagged Effects
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this chapter, we consider models for experiments in which the stress levels are altered at intermediate stages during the exposure. These experiments, referred to as step-stress tests, belong to the class of accelerated models that are extensively used in reliability and life-testing applications. Models for step-stress tests have largely relied on the cumulative exposure model (CEM) discussed by Nelson. Unfortunately, the assumptions of the model are fairly restrictive and quite unreasonable for applications in survival analysis. In particular, under the CEM the hazard function has discontinuities at the points at which the stress levels are changed. We introduce a new step-stress model where the hazard function is continuous. We consider a simple experiment with only two stress levels. The hazard function is assumed to be constant at the two stress levels and linear in the intermediate period. This model allows for a lag period before the effects of the change in stress are observed. Using this formulation in terms of the hazard function, we obtain the maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters. A simple least squares-type procedure is also proposed that yields closed-form solutions for the underlying parameters. A Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to study the behavior of the estimators obtained by the two methods for different choices of sample sizes and parameter values. We analyze a real data set and show that the model provides an excellent fit.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it