Modelling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Arboreal Diversity of the UBC Vancouver Campus from 2050 to 2080
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate change poses a considerable risk to forest diversity in urban communities. The University of British Columbia (UBC) seeks to identify vulnerable tree species on campus and apply strategies for sustaining arboreal diversity in future decades. In contribution to these efforts, this study investigated the potential shift in tree composition on the UBC Vancouver Campus over the next century by (1) predicting suitable climatic habitat for 128 campus species in 2050 and 2080, and (2) mapping the expected change in species richness across North America. Species distribution modelling was performed to define the current range of temperature and precipitation conditions for each tree species. The ranges were projected into RCP 8.5 worst-case climate scenarios for 2050 and 2080 as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Results indicate that climate change is expected to have a substantial impact on suitable habitat for trees on the UBC campus; 32% of the species are projected to lose their suitable climatic conditions on campus by 2080. On average, species ranges are projected to shift northwards by 8.1 (~ 900 km) in the coming century from 40.7 N to 48.7 N. Species estimated to have the greatest range shift such as silver birch (B. pendula) may require careful maintenance, or replacement with species of similar ecological function in the future. This study highlights the urgency of climate-induced habitat decline at UBC Vancouver and provides insight for a ‘Trees and Biodiversity’ strategy to restore and enhance arboreal diversity. Disclaimer: “UBC SEEDS provides students with the opportunity to share the findings of their studies, as well as their opinions, conclusions and recommendations with the UBC community. The reader should bear in mind that this is a student project/report and is not an official document of UBC. Furthermore readers should bear in mind that these reports may not reflect the current status of activities at UBC. We urge you to contact the research persons mentioned in a report or the SEEDS Coordinator about the current status of the subject matter of a project/report.”
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".