ECIN Replication Package for "A Reappraisal of Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil"
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Replication package for "A Reappraisal of Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil" Abstract: We replicate Baumeister and Kilian (2012) to reappraise real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil against the end-of-month no-change forecast, the equivalent naive benchmark used for asset prices. We find no consistently significant improvements in the predictive accuracy of model-based forecasts over this naive benchmark at short horizons. Only futures-based forecasts consistently outperform the end-of-month no-change forecast, and only at longer horizons. These results challenge the consensus on the predictability of the real price of crude oil and the merits of alternative forecast approaches. Our findings motivate broader reassessment and replication of forecasting models of temporally aggregated series.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.016 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.095 | 0.133 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".