中国卒中疾病负担与经济负担的整合分析 An Integrated Analysis of Disease Burden and Economic Burden of Stroke in China
Bibliographic record
Abstract
目的 对中国各类型卒中的疾病负担和经济负担进行整合分析。 方法 基于已发表文献和公共数据库，包括2013年中国卒中流行病学调查、中国心血管健康与疾病报告、中国卫生健康统计年鉴、2021年GBD研究等数据信息，对中国各类型卒中的发病、死亡、患病和DALYs、出院人次、次均住院费用和住院总费用等反映疾病负担和经济负担的指标进行综合分析。 结果 ①现状：2021—2022年，中国居民心脑血管事件监测显示，18岁及以上居民卒中年龄标化发病率为338.6/10万。根据中国卫生健康统计年鉴，2021年中国城市居民卒中粗死亡率为140.02/10万，占城市总死亡人数的21.71%，农村居民卒中粗死亡率为175.58/10万，占农村总死亡人数的23.62%。2021年GBD研究显示，2021年中国卒中年龄标化患病率为1301.4/10万，其中缺血性卒中为1018.8/10万，脑出血为222.1/10万，蛛网膜下腔出血为68.9/10万，卒中年龄标化DALYs率为2648.0/10万。②变化趋势：2021年GBD研究显示，与1990年相比，卒中的年龄标化发病率下降了9.8%，年龄标化死亡率下降了43.0%，年龄标化患病率上升了11.5%，年龄标化DALYs率下降了45.2%。但其中缺血性卒中的年龄标化发病率和患病率仍呈上升趋势，年龄标化死亡率和DALYs率的下降趋势无统计学意义；进一步的性别分析发现，女性缺血性卒中的年龄标化死亡率和DALYs率呈明显下降趋势，而男性这些指标的下降趋势无统计学意义。③经济负担：2020年，中国的缺血性卒中住院总费用为747.7亿元，脑出血为309.1亿元，次均住院费用分别为9824.9元和20 397.6元。校正物价影响，2004年以来，缺血性卒中、脑出血的住院总费用年均增长速度分别为16.8%和12.8%，次均住院费用年均增长速度分别为1.1%和4.4%。 结论 1990—2021年，中国的卒中总年龄标化发病率、年龄标化死亡率和DALYs率呈现下降趋势。但缺血性卒中的年龄标化发病率和患病率仍呈现上升趋势。2004—2020年，中国的缺血性卒中和脑出血次均住院费用均明显上升。随着人口老龄化的快速进程，未来卒中造成的疾病负担和经济负担仍将继续攀升。 Abstract: Objective To conduct an integrated analysis of the disease burden and economic burden of various types of stroke in China. Methods Based on published literature and public databases, including data from the 2013 national epidemiological survey of stroke in China, the annual report on cardiovascular health and diseases in China, the China health statistical yearbook, and the 2021 GBD study, a comprehensive analysis was conducted on the indicators reflecting the disease burden and economic burden of various types of stroke in China, such as the incidence, death, prevalence, DALYs, number of discharged patients, average hospitalization cost per visit, and the total hospitalization cost for patients with stroke. Results (1) Current situation: from 2021 to 2022, the surveillance of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events among Chinese residents revealed that the age-standardized incidence rate of stroke among individuals aged 18 and above in China was 338.6/100 000. According to the China health statistical yearbook, the crude death rate of stroke among urban residents in China in 2021 was 140.02/100 000, accounting for 21.71% of total urban deaths. Among rural residents, the crude death rate of stroke was 175.58/100 000, representing 23.62% of total rural deaths. The 2021 GBD study indicated that the age-standardized prevalence rate of stroke in China in 2021 was 1301.4/100 000, with ischemic stroke at 1018.8/100 000, intracerebral hemorrhage at 222.1/100 000, subarachnoid hemorrhage at 68.9/100 000, and the age-standardized DALYs rate for stroke was 2648.0/100 000. (2) Trends: the 2021 GBD study showed that compared to 1990, the age-standardized incidence rate of stroke decreased by 9.8%, the age-standardized death rate decreased by 43.0%, the age-standardized prevalence rate increased by 11.5%, and the age-standardized DALYs rate decreased by 45.2%. The age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates of ischemic stroke continued to exhibit an upward trend. In contrast, the downward trends in the age-standardized death rate and DALYs rate were not statistically significant. Further gender-specific analysis indicated that the age-standardized death rate and DALYs rate of ischemic stroke in females showed a statistically significant downward trend, while the corresponding trend in males was not statistically significant. (3) Economic burden: in 2020, the total hospitalization cost of ischemic stroke in China amounted to 74.77 billion yuan, and for intracerebral hemorrhage reached 30.91 billion yuan. The average hospitalization cost per visit was 9824.9 yuan for ischemic stroke and 20 397.6 yuan for intracerebral hemorrhage, respectively. After excluding the effects of price fluctuations, since 2004, the average annual growth rates of total hospitalization costs for ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage were 16.8% and 12.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, the average annual growth rates of the average hospitalization cost per visit were 1.1% and 4.4%, respectively. Conclusions From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized death rate, and DALYs rate of stroke in China exhibited a downward trend. However, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates of ischemic stroke continued to exhibit an upward trend. From 2004 to 2020, the average hospitalization cost per visit for ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage in China increased substantially. With the rapid process of population aging in China, the future disease burden and economic burden attributable to stroke will continue to rise.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".