Autumn larval cold tolerance does not predict the northern range limit of a widespread butterfly species
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate change is driving range shifts, and a lack of cold tolerance is hypothesized to constrain insect range expansion at poleward latitudes. However, few, if any, studies have tested this hypothesis during autumn when organisms are subjected to sporadic low temperature exposure but may not have become cold tolerant yet. In this study, we integrated organismal thermal tolerance measures into species distribution models for larvae of the Giant Swallowtail butterfly, Papilio cresphontes, living at the northern edge of its actively expanding range. Cold hardiness of field-collected larvae was determined using three common metrics of cold-induced physiological thresholds: the supercooling point (SCP), critical thermal minimum (CTmin), and survival following cold exposure. P. cresphontes larvae in autumn have a CTmin of 2.14°C, and were determined to be tolerant of chilling. These larvae have a SCP of -6.6°C and can survive prolonged exposure to -2°C. They generally die, however, at temperatures below their SCP (-8°C), suggesting they are chill tolerant or modestly freeze avoidant. Using this information, we examined the importance of low temperatures at a broad scale, by comparing species distribution models of P. cresphontes based only on environmental data derived from other sources to models that also included the cold tolerance parameters generated experimentally. Our modelling revealed that growing degree-days and precipitation best predicted the distribution of P. cresphontes, while the cold tolerance variables did not explain much variation in habitat suitability. As such, the modelling results were consistent with our experimental results: low temperatures in autumn are unlikely to limit the distribution of P. cresphontes. Further investigation into the ecological relevance of the physiological thresholds determined here will help determine how climate limits the distribution of P. cresphontes. Understanding the factors that limit species distributions is key to predicting how climate change will drive species range shifts.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".