Dataset from: Quantifying the Uncertainty in the Eurasian Ice-Sheet Geometry at the Penultimate Glacial Maximum (Marine Isotope Stage 6)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The North Sea Last Interglacial sea level is sensitive to the fingerprint of mass loss from polar ice sheets. However, the signal is complicated by the influence of glacial isostatic adjustment driven by Penultimate Glacial Period ice-sheet changes, and yet these ice-sheet geometries remain significantly uncertain. Here, we produce new reconstructions of the Eurasian ice sheet during the Penultimate Glacial Maximum by employing large ensemble experiments from a simple ice-sheet model that depends solely on basal sheer stress, ice extent, and topography. To explore the range of uncertainty in possible ice geometries, we use a parameterised shear-stress map as input that has been developed to incorporate bedrock characteristics and the influence of ice-sheet basal processes. We perform Bayesian uncertainty quantification, utilising Gaussian Process emulation, to calibrate against global ice-sheet reconstructions of the last deglaciation and rule out combinations of input parameters that produce unrealistic ice sheets. The refined parameter space is then applied to the Penultimate Glacial Maximum to create an ensemble of constrained 3D Eurasian ice-sheet geometries. Our reconstructed Penultimate Glacial Maximum Eurasian ice-sheet volume is 48 ± 8 m sle. We find that the Barents-Kara Sea region displays both the largest mean volume and volume uncertainty of 24 ± 8 m sle while the British-Irish sector’s volume of 1.7 ± 0.2 m sle is smallest. Our new workflow may be applied to other locations and periods where ice-sheet histories have limited empirical data.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.014 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.006 | 0.008 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.006 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".