Future Climate Scenarios for Northern Baffin Bay and the Pikialasorsuaq (North Water Polynya) Region
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Northern Baffin Bay is distinct due to the presence of the North Water Polynya, a region referred to as “Pikialasorsuaq” by Inuit in Greenland and “Sarvarjuaq” by Inuit in Canada. Surrounding communities rely on the polynya as hunting and shipping grounds for much of the year due to its lower sea ice concentration and high primary productivity; however, Arctic warming threatens the dynamics of the region by altering the sea ice cycle, oceanic heat content and freshwater input. The aim of this study is to examine the future of northern Baffin Bay and Pikialasorsuaq under various climate warming scenarios using the Nucleus for Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) engine, coupled to the Louvain-la-Neuve (LIM2) sea ice model. Five experiments were run on a 1/4∘ resolution Arctic and Northern Hemispheric Atlantic (ANHA4) configuration over the period 1981–2070 forced by a range of global climate models. By 2070 there is a significant decrease in sea ice thickness and concentration, with an overall warming and salinity increase in the upper 500 m of the water column. Increased freshwater input from melting Greenland glaciers results in a more muted salinity increase in the top 50 m, while deeper waters are impacted by increased penetration of warm, saline Atlantic Water into Baffin Bay through Davis Strait. These physical changes impact the formation of the polynya in the future. The polynya is expected to continue to form on the eastern side near Greenland through mixing of warm Atlantic Waters to the surface, while the western side near Ellesmere Island has an increased ice area flux through Nares Strait and increased stratification. Additionally, there is a shallowing of mixed layer depth and increase in density stratification under the greatest warming scenarios. Implications to biogeochemical properties include a 0.5% decrease in total alkalinity, a 3.4% decreased in dissolved oxygen concentration but no net change in annual phytoplankton primary production. However, there are large changes in the phytoplankton bloom dynamics, including a 50% decrease in the autumn bloom and a 20-day advance in the spring bloom. Overall, our study suggests significant oceanographic changes which could lead to a loss of the recurrent polynya in its historical state, and shifts in primary production which could have, as yet uncertain, consequences for the food web and higher trophic levels.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".