COVID-19 Datasets for predicting the number of new cases of COVID-19 ahead of 1 day, 3 days, and 10 days
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Four datasets are presented here. The original dataset is a collection of the COVID-19 data maintained by Our World in Data. It includes data on confirmed cases, and deaths, as well as other variables of potential interest for ten countries such as Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Denmark, France, Israel, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The original dataset includes the data from the date of 31st December in 2019 to 31st May in 2020 with a total of 1.530 instances and 19 features. This dataset is collected from a variety of sources (the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, United Nations, World Bank, Global Burden of Disease, Blavatnik School of Government, etc.). After the original dataset is pre-processed by cleaning and removing some data including unnecessary and blank. Then, all strings are converted numeric values, and some new features such as continent, hemisphere, year, month, and day are added by extracting the original features. After that, the processed original dataset is organized for prediction of the number of new cases of COVID-19 for 1 day, 3 days, and 10 days ago and three datasets (Dataset-1, 2, 3) are created for that.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.011 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".