Data for: Dismiss the Output Gaps? To Use with Caution Given Their Limitations
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Files with names starting with "Input Data" include real-time data used to estimate output gaps. They also include inflation data used in the program titled "Program - inflation forecasting." Real-time output gap estimates are found in the spreadsheet titled "Estimates - Output gaps." They are used to run the program titled "Program - inflation forecasting." Forecasting errors and associated statistics, as estimated using the program titled "Program - inflation forecasting," can be found in the different files with names starting with "Estimates." Please note that while we make as much of the data used in our paper available, some of it is confidential and cannot be provided. This includes the Bank of Canada’s staff output gap estimates over the past five years and forecasts of economic variables produced by the Bank of Canada’ staff during the same period. Moreover, Consensus Forecasts are not provided, as they require a license. They can be bought from Consensus Economics.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.015 | 0.008 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it